Scott R. Sullivan

December 29th, 2007 by Scott

A strange occurrence is underway. Global Warming seems to be taking the winter off. Coincidentally, it did this last winter and again the winter before. Come to think of it, each year about this time, it gets colder.

But we’ve been told that with man-made “Global Warming” that winters will become, well, warmer. Except that this month has a few interesting headlines that contradict that.

December snowfall nears all-time record for city - Dec. 29, 2007 - So far, an estimated 24½ inches of snow has fallen in Oshkosh this December, which is believed to be the fourth most since at least 1948, according to the Midwestern Regional Climate Center, Champaign, Ill. The agency reported the record snowfall for December, 25.7 inches, fell in Oshkosh is in 2000.

Oshkosh’s average snowfall in December is about 11 inches and the normal seasonal snowfall during winter in the city is 41.3 inches. The Northwestern, Wisconsin

Northern New England may get as much as a half-foot of snow today as a wave a low pressure and cold air blows in from the U.S. Midwest and Plains. To the north of New York City, however, 3 inches to 6 inches of snow may fall across a swath from the Pocono Mountains to Maine by Dec. 31, AccuWeather said. Boston could break its snowiest December record, set in 1970 when 27.9 inches fell. - Bloomberg.com, Dec 29, 2007

NOAA is even predicting a cooler than average winter for 2008:

A MODERATELY STRONG COLD EVENT (LA NINA) CONTINUES ACROSS THE PACIFIC BASIN. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN, WITH ANOMALOUSLY COLD SSTS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST WESTWARD BEYOND THE DATE LINE TO 160E LONGITUDE. SSTS IN THE NINO 3.4 REGION AVERAGED 1.5 DEGREES C BELOW NORMAL DURING NOVEMBER, WHERE A VALUE OF 1.0 TO 1.5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INDICATES THE EXISTENCE OF MODERATE LA NINA CONDITIONS.

THESE OBSERVATIONS AGREE WITH WHAT MOST DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS HAVE, FOR SOME TIME, BEEN PREDICTING FOR THIS FALL AND WINTER. THE CONSENSUS … INDICATE THAT THE CURRENT SST ANOMALIES OF BETWEEN 1 AND 2 DEGREES C BELOW NORMAL ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH JFM 2008 … AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING FMA AND MAM (SPRING) 2008.

THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS FOR JANUARY-FEBRUARY-MARCH (JFM) 2008 REFLECT LA NINA IMPACTS IN COMBINATION WITH RECENT TRENDS. TEMPERATURES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER THAN THE AVERAGE OF RECENT YEARS AND SEASONAL MEANS SHOULD BE MORE IN LINE WITH THOSE EXPECTED IN THE 1971-2000 CLIMATE BASE PERIOD. ELSEWHERE… THE FORECAST CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES (EC) OF ABOVE-, NEAR-, AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. - NOAA, Dec 20, 2007 Seasonal Forecast Outlook

Global Cooling

And finally, we cannot forget the fact that the average global temperature has actually be decreasing since during the past nine years (Source: Telegraph.co.uk).

Here’s a quote from a wonderful article explaining, scientifically and historically, what has been occurring on this planet for several eras::

The official thermometers at the U.S. National Climate Data Center show a slight global cooling trend over the last seven years, from 1998 to 2005.

Actually, global warming is likely to continue—but the interruption of the recent strong warming trend sharply undercuts the argument that our global warming is an urgent, man-made emergency. The seven-year decline makes our warming look much more like the moderate, erratic warming to be expected when the planet naturally shifts from a Little Ice Age (1300–1850 AD) to a centuries-long warm phase like the Medieval Warming (950–1300 AD) or the Roman Warming (200 BC– 600 AD).

The stutter in the temperature rise should rein in some of the more apoplectic cries of panic over man-made greenhouse emissions. The strong 28-year upward trend of 1970–1998 has apparently ended.

Speaking of the 1500-year climate cycles, grab an Internet peek at the earth’s official temperatures since 1850. They describe a long, gentle S-curve, with the below-mean temperatures of the Little Ice Age gradually giving way to the above-the-mean temperatures we should expect during a Modern Warming.
(Source: Dennis Avery)

Surprising? The planet has cycles. After all, we see cycles in the moon (30 days), the tides (6 hours), cycles in hurricanes (every 30 years), cycles in cicadas (17 years) and much more.

As I’ve said before, the left-thinking alarmists want to blame us for something that just isn’t true. I’m off to drive my SUV.

December 29th, 2007 by Scott

History favors the Republicans for the 2008 Presidential Elections. Why is that, you ask? Looking back at where all the candidates come from, there is a statistical advantage for the Republicans this election year.

History has favored governors and vice presidents to win the White House. I went back and researched the qualifications and previous “jobs” of all U.S. Presidents since Roosevelt. Take a look at the positions held by our presidents at the time they ran for president:

Presidents who were Governors while running: 5

December 26th, 2007 by Scott

In a Washington Times article published today, Lawrence Kudlow hits some of the highlights of President Bush’s 2007 accomplishments. Kudlow is right on the mark in many areas. Allow me to expand with the Democratic/Republican “2007 predictions.”

After all, hindsight is 20/20.

The Economy

Democratic Prediction: 2007 Recession

The Huffington Post: Sep 10, 2007 - Strained by an ailing housing market and credit woes, the economy in 2007 is expected to log its worst growth in five years and should be somewhat sluggish next year. The No. 1 risk, though, is that the economy will lose its footing altogether and fall into a recession, forecasters say.

The New York Times: September 8, 2007 - Suddenly, analysts are talking about a possible recession. And that’s not good news for anybody. A few more months like August would make a recession likely.

ABC: Democrat Chris Dodd Predicts Recession: November 11, 2007 - Senate Banking Committee Chairman Senator Chris Dodd, D-Conn., predicted this morning that the country is headed into a recession. “Well, it’s certainly pointing in that direction. We hope that’s not the case, but there are many people who watch this minute to minute and would have drawn that conclusion. Some are even predicting a far greater likelihood than I would at this juncture,” Dodd said in a “This Week with George Stephanopoulos” interview.

Actual Outcome: 2007 Sees Record Economic Growth
(Source: Federal Fact Sheet: December 12, 2007)

• November 2007 Marks Record 51st Consecutive Month of Job Growth
• More Than 8.3 Million Jobs Created Since August 2003 In Longest Continuous Run Of Job Growth On Record
• 94,000 jobs created in November.
• GDP grew at 4.9 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2007 (six years of uninterrupted growth, averaging 2.8 percent a year since 2001)

Iraq Troop Surge

Democratic Prediction: Troop Surge Will Fail

Democrat Harry Reid, Senate Majority Leader (in The Huffington Post) December 19, 2006 - Frankly, I don’t believe that more troops is the answer for Iraq.

Arianna Huffington (in the Huffington Post) June 14, 2007 - The Democrats need to stick with Reid’s plan to ratchet up the pressure on the president — and especially on Congressional Republicans who will have to face the wrath of voters in 2008. It is the right thing to do — both on moral grounds and on political grounds.

Stephen Schlesinger April 19, 2007 - This, after several months of the so-called Bush “surge”, which was going to decisively change the direction of the war in Iraq. The surge is a disaster.

‘Surge’ Strategy Is Recipe For Disaster - John Nichols, CBS December 20, 2006 - The “surge” strategy is ridiculous on its face. Strategists in Washington should be developing a plan for U.S. troops to surge homeward, not pushing a scheme to send more young men and women into a hopeless —and deadly — quagmire.

Actual Outcome: Troop Surge Worked

The Washington Times: August 21, 2007 - Top Senate Democrats have started to acknowledge progress in Iraq, with the chairman of the Armed Services Committee yesterday saying the U.S. troop surge is producing “measurable results.”

Sen. Carl Levin of Michigan highlighted improved security in Baghdad and al Qaeda losses in Anbar province as examples of success — a shift for Democrats who have mainly discounted or ignored advances on the battlefield for weeks.

“The military aspects of President Bush’s new strategy in Iraq … appear to have produced some credible and positive results,” Mr. Levin said in a joint statement with Sen. John W. Warner, Virginia Republican, after a two-day visit last week to Iraq.

Facts from MIT: September 14, 2007 - … civilian fatalities have declined without any concurrent increase in casualties among coalition and Iraqi troops.

General Petraeus: Iraq troop surge is working (UK Telegraph) December 9, 2007 - America’s military commander in Iraq gave President George W Bush a major boost last night by telling the US Congress that his “surge” policy was working and troop levels should be reduced by 30,000 over the next 10 months.

Iraq says most of Al-Qaeda network destroyed in 2007 - The Iraqi interior ministry lauded its achievements over the past year on Saturday, saying that 75 percent of Al-Qaeda’s networks in the country had been destroyed in 12 months.
Ministry spokesman Abdul Karim Khalaf also outlined sharp falls in the numbers of assassinations, kidnappings and death squad murders. Breitbart, Dec. 29, 2007

What’s Ahead in 2008?
I even see the trends pointing to a better 2008. With Congress’ dismal approval ratings, I even predict that we’ll see a return to a Republican controlled House and Senate in November 2008 and continue to hold the White House.

I will continue to document why I feel the Republicans will win all three branches as I follow the course of the primaries and the election year events. But there is one underlying theme that you’ll see and you can see in the above analysis.

Democrats like to lower the bar and tell us how much things will go wrong. Republicans like to look forward and find ways to raise the bar.

After all, look at the predictions above. Even with a Democratic controlled House and Senate, the Democrats had to shout doom and gloom. “We’re going to have a recession! We’re losing in Iraq!”

Why? Because anything that is good for the country is bad for them. Success for the country means that the Bush Doctrine is working. It means the tax cuts worked. It means the troop surge worked.

Stay tuned!