History Favors Republicans for President

December 29th, 2007 by Scott

History favors the Republicans for the 2008 Presidential Elections. Why is that, you ask? Looking back at where all the candidates come from, there is a statistical advantage for the Republicans this election year.

History has favored governors and vice presidents to win the White House. I went back and researched the qualifications and previous “jobs” of all U.S. Presidents since Roosevelt. Take a look at the positions held by our presidents at the time they ran for president:

Presidents who were Governors while running: 5

  • George Bush: Texas (Republican)
  • Bill Clinton: Arkansas (Democratic)
  • Ronald Reagan: California (Republican)
  • Jimmy Carter: Georgia (Democratic)
  • Franklin Roosevelt: New York (Democratic)

    Presidents who were Vice President while running: 5

  • George H.W. Bush (Republican)
  • Gerald Ford (Republican)
  • Richard Nixon (Republican)
  • Lyndon Johnson (Democratic)
  • Harry Truman (Democratic)

    Presidents who were U.S.Senators while running: 1

  • Jack Kennedy (Democratic)

    Presidents who were Army Chief while running: 1

  • Eisenhower (Republican)

    So as you can see, 10 of the past 12 presidents were either a governor or vice president as they ran for the presidency. Only 1 was a senator. Plus, look at how each election panned out (in reverse chronological order):

    2004 - Bush (Gov) v. Kerry (Senator)
    2000 - Bush (Gov) v. Gore (VP)
    1996 - Clinton (Gov) v. Dole (Senator)
    1992 - Clinton (Gov) v. Bush (Pres)
    1988 - Bush (VP) v. Dukakis (Gov)
    1984 - Reagan (Gov) v. Mondale (former VP)
    1980 - Reagan (Gov) v. Carter (Pres)
    1976 - Carter (Gov) v. Ford (VP)
    1972 - Nixon (former VP) v. McGovern (Senator)
    1968 - Johnson (VP) v. Goldwater (Senator)

    That really drives home how each election tends to favor a Governor. Now lets look at the current batch of top candidates.

    Democrats
    Mrs. Bill Clinton (Hillary Clinton), Obama, Edwards, Biden and Dodd are all Senators. The only governor is Bill Richardson, who is polling so low as to be out of the race. So statistically, they’ve got a pretty slim chance, based on past job experience.

    Republicans
    Giuliani’s last job was as Mayor of New York. This could almost swing as Governor due to the responsibilities he had. But I’m going to keep him in the “maybe” column.
    Romney and Huckabee are both governors (Massachusetts and Arkansas, respectively) and both are polling pretty high right now.
    The rest (McCain, Thompson, Paul and Hunter are either Senators or Congressmen).

    So as we move into the final days leading up to the first primaries, we can see that historically, the Republicans will more than likely nominate Romney, Guiliani or Huckabee. The Democrats will more than likely nominate Mrs. Bill Clinton or Obama.

    This would lead to a Democratic senator against a Republican governor. Which, statistically, means the Republicans have a better chance at the White House.

    Why do the numbers work out the way they do? I believe that as a governor, they faced challenges and working situations that were essentially a “mini” federal government. They oversaw a two party House and Senate their respective states. They made the main decisions for the states. There are many other reasons as well.

    Senators, on the other hand, could be seen as the bureaucracy that is our government. They add the earmark, pork spending.

    My bet: Mitt Romney wins Iowa. Then New Hampshire. He wins the nomination and then the White House.

    UPDATE: 8 Jan 08
    The New Hampshire primary has wrapped and Gov. Romney took the “silver” as he called it. This, combined with the Iowa and Wyoming results, give him the most delegates at this point in time.
    Current standing: Gov. Romney at the top with 29 delegates, Gov. Huckabee in second place with 20, Sen. McCain with 9 delegates.

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