Scott R. Sullivan

August 28th, 2008 by Scott

Several quick items to note. First, GDP for Q2 was released and has exceeded economists’ expectations, again.

The economy grew at 3.3% during the second quarter of this year. Far from the ‘recession’ the Democrats have been predicting and wanting for the past year.

Next, Obama’s “Zeus” complex was in full force as he spoke during his speech tonight. Sigh. Is he that egotistical?

Also ironic is that he blasted McCain for comparing Obama to Britney Spears in a commercial not too long ago. Well, turns out the man who designed Obama’s Mount Olympus stage for the acceptance speech tonight also designed Britney Spears’ stage sets. Ironic.

He also sounded very much like a Republican during his bullet points. It’s funny that Democrats talk about smaller government and tax cuts in order to get elected. Ironic.

Finally, McCain has chosen his running mate and will announce it within the next twelve hours. I’ve got a feeling it might get leaked beforehand, but either way, at noon on Friday, we’ll know.

I’m hoping for Romney. I’ve written many times about his winning attributes and still believe he or Jindal (if chosen as a running mate) will run for President in four years because I really doubt McCain will decide to run for a second term.

Plus, Romney and Jindal are the two conservatives that best display the true Reagan conservative values that will continue to make this country great.

P.S.
Gas continues to fall. Drove by a station today and it was $3.35! I know this is a temporary reaction to Bush’s action about drilling for more oil. But I predicted that gas prices would go WAY down before going back up again. Now we need to just drill and build a few nuclear and wind stations to help.

August 1st, 2008 by Scott

The second quarter of 2008 was a far cry from the ‘recession’ everyone keeps screaming about. In fact, it grew at MORE than DOUBLE from the first quarter of this year.

An emergency dose of government stimulus helped the economy grow at a 1.9 percent annual rate in the second quarter.

“Exports are on the rise. Durable goods orders are strong. That suggests that businesses are anticipating a better second half of the year,” Bush said. (Source)

According to the above article and many others, much of the credit goes to the tax rebates from President Bush. Thank you.

I haven’t heard much about this in the main news. The economy grew from 0.9 percent to almost 2 percent growth. So it not only grew, but the rate of growth also improved.

And the mainstream media doesn’t want to report on it. Tisk, tisk.

Oh, yeah… and gas is down to $3.65 right down the street. That’s almost 2 solid weeks of declining gas prices. That started right around the time Bush signed off on drilling for more oil. Sad how the Democrat Congress is against the idea.

July 17th, 2008 by Scott

They based their entire election campaign on the ‘failure’ in Iraq. They claimed we couldn’t win when Democrat Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid stood at the steps of the White House and said that “this war is lost and the surge is not accomplishing anything” (source).

They’ve maintained that position. Obama has said the same thing. Just this week, though, he erased his own comments off his website criticizing the troop surge.

Why did he want to erase his comments? Might have something to do with this story:

The nation’s top military officer Wednesday declared the security situation in Iraq “remarkably better,” so good in fact that he expects to recommend more U.S. troop reductions this fall if conditions hold. (Source)

The Democrats have based the campaign on the United States losing in Iraq. Well, Bush and the generals stayed the course and didn’t falter even when public opinion did.

The result? The Troop Surge worked. And we’ve already reduced the number of troops in Iraq to pre-surge levels due to its effectiveness.

We’ve been winning and the troop withdrawal the Democrats promised would be their mission when sworn in in 2009 could now begin before they get in the White House.

Take that, and add the following:

• The IMF said the U.S. economy will expand 1.3 percent in 2008, rather than 0.5 percent it estimated in April.
• The US Federal Reserves said today the latest data “reduced odds” for “an appreciable contraction of economic activity” (Source)

It’s good news. True, its not all roses. We’ve got a way to go, but I’m optimistic.

June 5th, 2008 by Scott

Let’s see:

• Gas prices falling (the price of a barrel of gas fell $9 in one day)
• Stocks are up on news of better than expected news from retailers (people are spending more)
• Unemployment is down 189,000 (latest number is 5% for April)
• GDP is up 0.9% in 2008 Q1 (up from 0.6% in 2007 Q4)

Not to mention that Iraq violence is at a four year low. The surge worked. Iraqis are taking control of their new democracy.

Yup. Times are getting better. Things are improving. I’ll admit, we’re not out of the tunnel yet, but the trends have already reversed and the upward trend is there.

My bet is that this trend will continue. By the time November rolls around, things will be even better. Which for the country is good. For the Democrats, who have invested in our defeat in Iraq, the collapse of our economy (remember the “Bush Recession” that was “right around the corner”).

Update: Well, it seems one day after I post, the unemployment rate rose to 5.5%. I still think in the long term, we’ll be well on our way to a full recovery by November. But only time will tell!

May 9th, 2008 by Scott

The “global warming” activists haven’t been very active recently. Sure, Algore is telling everyone the recent cyclone in Burma was because of global warming.

This is unfortunate, because it contradicts all the REAL scientific data. April was actually the coolest April in 11 years and the 29th coldest April in 114 YEARS! And this is according to NOAA:

The average temperature in April 2008 was 51.0 F. This was -1.0 F cooler than the 1901-2000 (20th century) average, the 29th coolest April in 114 years.
(Source: NOAA)

So lets go down the list of Democratic talking points:

Iraq - They said it was broken and the surge wouldn’t work. It did work and this talking point was dropped.

Global Warming - We’ve seen a global COOLING trend. This talking point has gone bye-bye.

The Economy - Democrats are hoping for a Recession so they can blame Bush for wrecking the economy. But unemployment fell to 5% last quarter, the GDP has GROWN (a recession needs two consecutive quarters of negative growth… despite Democratic yelling, it has remained in POSITIVE GROWTH).

One final note about the “global warming” crowd. Here’s the deal. Temperatures go up. Then they go down. The Earth is cyclical. Everything happens in cycles. Tides change every 6 hours, seasons change four times a year.

The temperature will go down for a few years, then it will go up again. Its just nature.

May 2nd, 2008 by Scott

While many in the media and the far Left-winged wait with anticipation for an official word that we are, indeed, in a recession, their faces only turn blue waiting.

You see, as I have mentioned many times over the past several months, there was no such thing as a 2007 or 2008 recession like so many claim.

Yes, many say that we are already in a recession. Some might acknowledge that while we are not, technically, in one yet, it is bound to show up sooner or later, so lets just call it one already.

Some are even saying that because for some, it “feels” like a recession, then it is. By extension, because it feels like leather, it is leather and not plastic.

A little background for those on the left that can’t stand my continual correct observations regarding the state of the United States’ economy.

recession n. - Two consecutive quarters of falling real gross national product (GDP).

According to the BEA:

Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 0.6 percent in the first quarter of 2008, according to advance estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP also increased 0.6 percent. Source

So, in Q4 2007, the GDP INCREASED. In Q1 2008, the GDP INCREASED AGAIN.

According to every definition of the word, there was NO recession during this economic slowdown.

I can hear you now, though. Ahah! So we ARE in a slowdown.

Of course we are in a slowdown. No one is denying this. But the slowdown has slowed, and has possibly reversed and is looking very much like stronger growth is in the near future.

After all, the unemployment rate fell to 5% last month (Source). And the job losses (yes, there were some 20,000 job losses) were 55,000 FEWER than expected. Only 25% of the expected job losses materialized. MUCH better than anyone had predicted.

They continued in that article:

In other economic news, the Commerce Department reported that orders to U.S. factories rose a bigger-than-expected 1.4 percent in March.

AND, the dollar isn’t doing to bad either. In fact, in a sign that the American Dollar is showing signs of a recovery and growth:

Futures traders are betting for the first time since December 2005 that the dollar will gain against the euro. (Source: Bloomberg)

With an economy turning around already, by November, we should have an even better economic outlook and the Democratics will have not a leg to stand.

The funny thing is, in order for the Democratic candidates to continue criticizing President Bush and the Republicans, they NEED a poor economy, which is why they have all been PUSHING for a recession for close to a year.

It’s gotta suck to be a Democrat in a position where you are rooting for Americans to suffer.

April 14th, 2008 by Scott

So, John McCain says he believes we are in a recession. I’ve now hear this from several people. I’m sad he’s joined the bandwagon.

Nevermind that a recession is defined by two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth. Nevermind that the last quarter had positive growth. Nevermind definitions.

As is the trend with the left (and now, McCain), whatever they “feel” at the moment becomes truth. It doesn’t matter that we are not, technically, in a recession. It ‘feels’ like we are so, we are.

This is similar to the charges made against many Republicans a few years ago by the Dems. There was NO evidence to back up their false charges, but their repeated quotes were, “It’s the SERIOUSNESS of the charge that matters.”

So facts don’t really matter to the left, as you can see. It is the SERIOUSNESS of the charge. So by saying we are in a recession (though we are not), people start thinking we ARE in one.

Mark my words… this trend of making charges while ignoring facts is going to creep into the “global warming” ecosystem.

It has been proven that there has been NO rise in global temperature for almost a decade. BUT… we will begin to hear, “It’s the SERIOUSNESS of the possibility of global warming.”

We won’t need PROOF. We just need to CLAIM it. Mark my words.

December 26th, 2007 by Scott

In a Washington Times article published today, Lawrence Kudlow hits some of the highlights of President Bush’s 2007 accomplishments. Kudlow is right on the mark in many areas. Allow me to expand with the Democratic/Republican “2007 predictions.”

After all, hindsight is 20/20.

The Economy

Democratic Prediction: 2007 Recession

The Huffington Post: Sep 10, 2007 - Strained by an ailing housing market and credit woes, the economy in 2007 is expected to log its worst growth in five years and should be somewhat sluggish next year. The No. 1 risk, though, is that the economy will lose its footing altogether and fall into a recession, forecasters say.

The New York Times: September 8, 2007 - Suddenly, analysts are talking about a possible recession. And that’s not good news for anybody. A few more months like August would make a recession likely.

ABC: Democrat Chris Dodd Predicts Recession: November 11, 2007 - Senate Banking Committee Chairman Senator Chris Dodd, D-Conn., predicted this morning that the country is headed into a recession. “Well, it’s certainly pointing in that direction. We hope that’s not the case, but there are many people who watch this minute to minute and would have drawn that conclusion. Some are even predicting a far greater likelihood than I would at this juncture,” Dodd said in a “This Week with George Stephanopoulos” interview.

Actual Outcome: 2007 Sees Record Economic Growth
(Source: Federal Fact Sheet: December 12, 2007)

• November 2007 Marks Record 51st Consecutive Month of Job Growth
• More Than 8.3 Million Jobs Created Since August 2003 In Longest Continuous Run Of Job Growth On Record
• 94,000 jobs created in November.
• GDP grew at 4.9 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2007 (six years of uninterrupted growth, averaging 2.8 percent a year since 2001)

Iraq Troop Surge

Democratic Prediction: Troop Surge Will Fail

Democrat Harry Reid, Senate Majority Leader (in The Huffington Post) December 19, 2006 - Frankly, I don’t believe that more troops is the answer for Iraq.

Arianna Huffington (in the Huffington Post) June 14, 2007 - The Democrats need to stick with Reid’s plan to ratchet up the pressure on the president — and especially on Congressional Republicans who will have to face the wrath of voters in 2008. It is the right thing to do — both on moral grounds and on political grounds.

Stephen Schlesinger April 19, 2007 - This, after several months of the so-called Bush “surge”, which was going to decisively change the direction of the war in Iraq. The surge is a disaster.

‘Surge’ Strategy Is Recipe For Disaster - John Nichols, CBS December 20, 2006 - The “surge” strategy is ridiculous on its face. Strategists in Washington should be developing a plan for U.S. troops to surge homeward, not pushing a scheme to send more young men and women into a hopeless —and deadly — quagmire.

Actual Outcome: Troop Surge Worked

The Washington Times: August 21, 2007 - Top Senate Democrats have started to acknowledge progress in Iraq, with the chairman of the Armed Services Committee yesterday saying the U.S. troop surge is producing “measurable results.”

Sen. Carl Levin of Michigan highlighted improved security in Baghdad and al Qaeda losses in Anbar province as examples of success — a shift for Democrats who have mainly discounted or ignored advances on the battlefield for weeks.

“The military aspects of President Bush’s new strategy in Iraq … appear to have produced some credible and positive results,” Mr. Levin said in a joint statement with Sen. John W. Warner, Virginia Republican, after a two-day visit last week to Iraq.

Facts from MIT: September 14, 2007 - … civilian fatalities have declined without any concurrent increase in casualties among coalition and Iraqi troops.

General Petraeus: Iraq troop surge is working (UK Telegraph) December 9, 2007 - America’s military commander in Iraq gave President George W Bush a major boost last night by telling the US Congress that his “surge” policy was working and troop levels should be reduced by 30,000 over the next 10 months.

Iraq says most of Al-Qaeda network destroyed in 2007 - The Iraqi interior ministry lauded its achievements over the past year on Saturday, saying that 75 percent of Al-Qaeda’s networks in the country had been destroyed in 12 months.
Ministry spokesman Abdul Karim Khalaf also outlined sharp falls in the numbers of assassinations, kidnappings and death squad murders. Breitbart, Dec. 29, 2007

What’s Ahead in 2008?
I even see the trends pointing to a better 2008. With Congress’ dismal approval ratings, I even predict that we’ll see a return to a Republican controlled House and Senate in November 2008 and continue to hold the White House.

I will continue to document why I feel the Republicans will win all three branches as I follow the course of the primaries and the election year events. But there is one underlying theme that you’ll see and you can see in the above analysis.

Democrats like to lower the bar and tell us how much things will go wrong. Republicans like to look forward and find ways to raise the bar.

After all, look at the predictions above. Even with a Democratic controlled House and Senate, the Democrats had to shout doom and gloom. “We’re going to have a recession! We’re losing in Iraq!”

Why? Because anything that is good for the country is bad for them. Success for the country means that the Bush Doctrine is working. It means the tax cuts worked. It means the troop surge worked.

Stay tuned!