Scott R. Sullivan

May 2nd, 2008 by Scott

While many in the media and the far Left-winged wait with anticipation for an official word that we are, indeed, in a recession, their faces only turn blue waiting.

You see, as I have mentioned many times over the past several months, there was no such thing as a 2007 or 2008 recession like so many claim.

Yes, many say that we are already in a recession. Some might acknowledge that while we are not, technically, in one yet, it is bound to show up sooner or later, so lets just call it one already.

Some are even saying that because for some, it “feels” like a recession, then it is. By extension, because it feels like leather, it is leather and not plastic.

A little background for those on the left that can’t stand my continual correct observations regarding the state of the United States’ economy.

recession n. - Two consecutive quarters of falling real gross national product (GDP).

According to the BEA:

Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 0.6 percent in the first quarter of 2008, according to advance estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP also increased 0.6 percent. Source

So, in Q4 2007, the GDP INCREASED. In Q1 2008, the GDP INCREASED AGAIN.

According to every definition of the word, there was NO recession during this economic slowdown.

I can hear you now, though. Ahah! So we ARE in a slowdown.

Of course we are in a slowdown. No one is denying this. But the slowdown has slowed, and has possibly reversed and is looking very much like stronger growth is in the near future.

After all, the unemployment rate fell to 5% last month (Source). And the job losses (yes, there were some 20,000 job losses) were 55,000 FEWER than expected. Only 25% of the expected job losses materialized. MUCH better than anyone had predicted.

They continued in that article:

In other economic news, the Commerce Department reported that orders to U.S. factories rose a bigger-than-expected 1.4 percent in March.

AND, the dollar isn’t doing to bad either. In fact, in a sign that the American Dollar is showing signs of a recovery and growth:

Futures traders are betting for the first time since December 2005 that the dollar will gain against the euro. (Source: Bloomberg)

With an economy turning around already, by November, we should have an even better economic outlook and the Democratics will have not a leg to stand.

The funny thing is, in order for the Democratic candidates to continue criticizing President Bush and the Republicans, they NEED a poor economy, which is why they have all been PUSHING for a recession for close to a year.

It’s gotta suck to be a Democrat in a position where you are rooting for Americans to suffer.

December 26th, 2007 by Scott

In a Washington Times article published today, Lawrence Kudlow hits some of the highlights of President Bush’s 2007 accomplishments. Kudlow is right on the mark in many areas. Allow me to expand with the Democratic/Republican “2007 predictions.”

After all, hindsight is 20/20.

The Economy

Democratic Prediction: 2007 Recession

The Huffington Post: Sep 10, 2007 - Strained by an ailing housing market and credit woes, the economy in 2007 is expected to log its worst growth in five years and should be somewhat sluggish next year. The No. 1 risk, though, is that the economy will lose its footing altogether and fall into a recession, forecasters say.

The New York Times: September 8, 2007 - Suddenly, analysts are talking about a possible recession. And that’s not good news for anybody. A few more months like August would make a recession likely.

ABC: Democrat Chris Dodd Predicts Recession: November 11, 2007 - Senate Banking Committee Chairman Senator Chris Dodd, D-Conn., predicted this morning that the country is headed into a recession. “Well, it’s certainly pointing in that direction. We hope that’s not the case, but there are many people who watch this minute to minute and would have drawn that conclusion. Some are even predicting a far greater likelihood than I would at this juncture,” Dodd said in a “This Week with George Stephanopoulos” interview.

Actual Outcome: 2007 Sees Record Economic Growth
(Source: Federal Fact Sheet: December 12, 2007)

• November 2007 Marks Record 51st Consecutive Month of Job Growth
• More Than 8.3 Million Jobs Created Since August 2003 In Longest Continuous Run Of Job Growth On Record
• 94,000 jobs created in November.
• GDP grew at 4.9 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2007 (six years of uninterrupted growth, averaging 2.8 percent a year since 2001)

Iraq Troop Surge

Democratic Prediction: Troop Surge Will Fail

Democrat Harry Reid, Senate Majority Leader (in The Huffington Post) December 19, 2006 - Frankly, I don’t believe that more troops is the answer for Iraq.

Arianna Huffington (in the Huffington Post) June 14, 2007 - The Democrats need to stick with Reid’s plan to ratchet up the pressure on the president — and especially on Congressional Republicans who will have to face the wrath of voters in 2008. It is the right thing to do — both on moral grounds and on political grounds.

Stephen Schlesinger April 19, 2007 - This, after several months of the so-called Bush “surge”, which was going to decisively change the direction of the war in Iraq. The surge is a disaster.

‘Surge’ Strategy Is Recipe For Disaster - John Nichols, CBS December 20, 2006 - The “surge” strategy is ridiculous on its face. Strategists in Washington should be developing a plan for U.S. troops to surge homeward, not pushing a scheme to send more young men and women into a hopeless —and deadly — quagmire.

Actual Outcome: Troop Surge Worked

The Washington Times: August 21, 2007 - Top Senate Democrats have started to acknowledge progress in Iraq, with the chairman of the Armed Services Committee yesterday saying the U.S. troop surge is producing “measurable results.”

Sen. Carl Levin of Michigan highlighted improved security in Baghdad and al Qaeda losses in Anbar province as examples of success — a shift for Democrats who have mainly discounted or ignored advances on the battlefield for weeks.

“The military aspects of President Bush’s new strategy in Iraq … appear to have produced some credible and positive results,” Mr. Levin said in a joint statement with Sen. John W. Warner, Virginia Republican, after a two-day visit last week to Iraq.

Facts from MIT: September 14, 2007 - … civilian fatalities have declined without any concurrent increase in casualties among coalition and Iraqi troops.

General Petraeus: Iraq troop surge is working (UK Telegraph) December 9, 2007 - America’s military commander in Iraq gave President George W Bush a major boost last night by telling the US Congress that his “surge” policy was working and troop levels should be reduced by 30,000 over the next 10 months.

Iraq says most of Al-Qaeda network destroyed in 2007 - The Iraqi interior ministry lauded its achievements over the past year on Saturday, saying that 75 percent of Al-Qaeda’s networks in the country had been destroyed in 12 months.
Ministry spokesman Abdul Karim Khalaf also outlined sharp falls in the numbers of assassinations, kidnappings and death squad murders. Breitbart, Dec. 29, 2007

What’s Ahead in 2008?
I even see the trends pointing to a better 2008. With Congress’ dismal approval ratings, I even predict that we’ll see a return to a Republican controlled House and Senate in November 2008 and continue to hold the White House.

I will continue to document why I feel the Republicans will win all three branches as I follow the course of the primaries and the election year events. But there is one underlying theme that you’ll see and you can see in the above analysis.

Democrats like to lower the bar and tell us how much things will go wrong. Republicans like to look forward and find ways to raise the bar.

After all, look at the predictions above. Even with a Democratic controlled House and Senate, the Democrats had to shout doom and gloom. “We’re going to have a recession! We’re losing in Iraq!”

Why? Because anything that is good for the country is bad for them. Success for the country means that the Bush Doctrine is working. It means the tax cuts worked. It means the troop surge worked.

Stay tuned!

April 7th, 2007 by Scott

It’s official. The economy is still growing. Probably why the left has dropped the economy as their slogan and switched to ‘global warming’ instead.

For those who may not know, yesterday’s Washington Times (here, reported that the unemployment rate hit a five-year low of 4.4% as 180,000 new jobs were created last month.

The left has made several false claims about why we should get rid fo the tax cuts:

1) It will destroy the economy
2) It balloons the deficit
3) It benefits only the rich

Let’s take them on one at a time.

Myth 1: Tax Cuts Hurt the Economy

First, let’s Just take a look at this nifty little chart I made:

As you can see, during the last recession (the economy began to slow during the fall election in 2000 and became an official recession in March of 2001 and then was devastated even more by the 9/11 terrorist attacts), the GDP was slowed and unemployment rose at a very sharp rate.

However, about the same time, President Bush and the Republican congress passed the tax cuts. As you can see, unemployment began to level off, the economy began to improve and ever since, the economy has seen fantastic growth.

Was this economic growth spurred by the tax cuts or just a coincidence? Allow me to cite an article published by the CATO Institute about state economies:

California: No state has turned around its fortunes as dramatically as California in recent years. In 1990 the legislature and Gov. Pete Wilson enacted a $7 billion tax increase, the largest in the history of the 50 states. The income tax hikes were noteworthy in that they failed to raise any new revenue while sinking the state deeper into recession as upper income families and entrepreneurs moved out. The already ailing economy continued to decline. From 1990 to 1993 the state lost 350,000 jobs. In 1995 the tax hikes were repealed. Since then California has gained 150,000 jobs and the unemployment rate has fallen sharply.

Pennsylvania: Gov. Robert Casey enacted a $2 billion major income tax increase–raising the rate from 2.1 to 2.8 percent–during the 1990-91 recession. From 1990 to 1995 there was virtually no net job creation in Pennsylvania. In his first year in office, 1995, Gov. Tom Ridge pushed through a $200 million business income tax cut and a workmen’s compensation reform measure that is expected to reduce premiums by as much as 10 percent. In 1996 he endorsed a reduction in the franchise tax and a $1,000 tax credit for new hires. He has also been tight-fisted on spending. His 1996 budget allowed spending to grow by just 0.6 percent. In 1997, for the first time in a quarter century, the general fund budget spends less than the year before. That combination of tax cuts and budget restraints has helped lead to a net gain of 100,000 jobs so far in 1996.
Source: CATO Institute

Ok, so now that we can say without a doubt that the tax cuts allowed the creation of jobs and increased economic growth, let’s tackle the next strawman: the deficit.

Myth 2: Tax Cuts Increase The Deficit

We know this to actually be not only false, but the opposite of what actually transpires. Cutting taxes will actually increase revenue for the government.

Ah, but I can hear you now. “Scott, how can cutting taxes RAISE revenue?”

First, if businesses (from large corporations to small businesses) pay less in taxes, they can invest that money in other areas of their business. For example, they can hire new employees or they could give current employees a larger raise.

Now if a business hires, that individual now has a job and now pays taxes. If a business gives a raise, that individual could move up into the next tax bracket and pay a larger percentage of taxes.

More jobs equals more taxes. This, in turn, will pay off the deficit, not increase it.

Here’s a quote from an article in USA Today from 2006:

Ever since the Senate approved the last major tax relief bill, in 2003, revenues have increased every year. In 2004, they went up 5.5%. Last year, they rose 14.5%, the largest increase in nearly 25 years. …
Republicans’ decision to reduce taxes on capital gains and dividends provides a good case study in effective tax policy. When we enacted these measures in 2003, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that revenues would decline by $27 billion over the next two years. Instead, it turned out that the tax cut stimulated investment and increased revenues by $26 billion — a $53 billion difference.
Source: USA Today, Feb 20, 2006

With this information, it can easily be seen why the left is no longer complaining and bickering from about how President Bush’s tax cuts and War on Terror was creating a huge deficit. They knew tax cuts increase revenue and would pay off the deficit much earlier than anyone had thought.

One more reason the left has abandoned the economy in favor of ‘global warming.’

Myth 3: The Tax Cuts Only Favor the Rich

I’m far from rich. I don’t own five vacation houses. I don’t own a private jet. I do, however, own and run two small businesses. Those tax cuts helped me.

Small business owners were able to invest in their company instead of giving that money to the governement.

Just like owning a house and building up equity in that house is better than renting and thowing away that money, owning a business lets you invest in something that is yours.

Many of my clients work at other companies. When their company recieved tax cuts, it allowed them to spend more on advertising and marketing. They spent more on video productions, which is what my one company happens to do.

Finis

In the end, we can clearly see that tax cuts help not just the rich, but everyone. They drive the economy and they help this country run. The Bush Tax Cuts must be made permanant, something the Democrat congress has vowed to fight.