Scott R. Sullivan

July 23rd, 2008 by Scott

The news is in. Over half of Americans agree that we are winning the war on terrror:

Over half of American voters (51%) now believe the United States and its allies are winning the war on terror, the highest figure recorded in nearly four years by Rasmussen Reports in a nationwide survey.

Last July, just 36% thought the U.S. and its allies were winning. At that time, an equal number—36%–thought the terrorists were ahead.

Other indicators in the survey also show that Americans have growing confidence that things are looking up in the war on terror.
(Source)

Let’s recap. Last year, only 36% of Americans thought we were winning. The Democrats wanted us to retreat and cut our losses in Iraq. They wanted to quit.

One year later, it turns out President Bush was right. The Republicans were right. The surge worked. We are winning. And most Americans now agree.

It just goes to show that a war should NOT be fought based on weekly opinion polls.

July 17th, 2008 by Scott

They based their entire election campaign on the ‘failure’ in Iraq. They claimed we couldn’t win when Democrat Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid stood at the steps of the White House and said that “this war is lost and the surge is not accomplishing anything” (source).

They’ve maintained that position. Obama has said the same thing. Just this week, though, he erased his own comments off his website criticizing the troop surge.

Why did he want to erase his comments? Might have something to do with this story:

The nation’s top military officer Wednesday declared the security situation in Iraq “remarkably better,” so good in fact that he expects to recommend more U.S. troop reductions this fall if conditions hold. (Source)

The Democrats have based the campaign on the United States losing in Iraq. Well, Bush and the generals stayed the course and didn’t falter even when public opinion did.

The result? The Troop Surge worked. And we’ve already reduced the number of troops in Iraq to pre-surge levels due to its effectiveness.

We’ve been winning and the troop withdrawal the Democrats promised would be their mission when sworn in in 2009 could now begin before they get in the White House.

Take that, and add the following:

• The IMF said the U.S. economy will expand 1.3 percent in 2008, rather than 0.5 percent it estimated in April.
• The US Federal Reserves said today the latest data “reduced odds” for “an appreciable contraction of economic activity” (Source)

It’s good news. True, its not all roses. We’ve got a way to go, but I’m optimistic.

July 15th, 2008 by Scott

I love that title! Credit goes to an article in the New York Daily News talking about how Obama, over this past weekend, decided to rewrite history and purge his website of references to his opposition to the troop surge.

WASHINGTON - Barack Obama’s campaign scrubbed his presidential Web site over the weekend to remove criticism of the U.S. troop “surge” in Iraq, the Daily News has learned.

The presumed Democratic nominee replaced his Iraq issue Web page, which had described the surge as a “problem” that had barely reduced violence.

“The surge is not working,” Obama’s old plan stated, citing a lack of Iraqi political cooperation but crediting Sunni sheiks - not U.S. military muscle - for quelling violence in Anbar Province.

The News reported Sunday that insurgent attacks have fallen to the fewest since March 2004.

GOP rival John McCain zinged Obama as a flip-flopper. “The major point here is that Sen. Obama refuses to acknowledge that he was wrong,” said McCain, adding that Obama “refuses to acknowledge that it [the surge] is succeeding.”(Source)

We’ll see how much the main stream media picks up on this story or if they ignore it.

This is becoming a bigger problem online, as it becomes easier for people to “erase” past comments and or rewrite stories and revise history.

You’ll notice on my blog, when I make an update to an article I wrote, I add an “Update” at the bottom, leaving my article intact (two example: unemployment change, miscalled primary result).

A few times, this makes obvious the point that I made an error or was off in a prediction, but also shows I have nothing to hide, unlike Obama, who is attempting to change his own history.

In the long term, it also shows I am not afraid to state my beliefs and stick to them instead of feeling the direction of the wind and go with the popular “feeling” of the day.

June 5th, 2008 by Scott

Let’s see:

• Gas prices falling (the price of a barrel of gas fell $9 in one day)
• Stocks are up on news of better than expected news from retailers (people are spending more)
• Unemployment is down 189,000 (latest number is 5% for April)
• GDP is up 0.9% in 2008 Q1 (up from 0.6% in 2007 Q4)

Not to mention that Iraq violence is at a four year low. The surge worked. Iraqis are taking control of their new democracy.

Yup. Times are getting better. Things are improving. I’ll admit, we’re not out of the tunnel yet, but the trends have already reversed and the upward trend is there.

My bet is that this trend will continue. By the time November rolls around, things will be even better. Which for the country is good. For the Democrats, who have invested in our defeat in Iraq, the collapse of our economy (remember the “Bush Recession” that was “right around the corner”).

Update: Well, it seems one day after I post, the unemployment rate rose to 5.5%. I still think in the long term, we’ll be well on our way to a full recovery by November. But only time will tell!

March 29th, 2008 by Scott

Stop-Loss is a film released by the Hollywood about the Iraq war. At the heart of the film is negative commentary about the war and another attempt to begin placing the idea of desertion in the minds of the people.

How did the film do?

Stop-Loss opened to only $1.6 million Friday from just 1,291 plays and should eke out $4+M. Although the drama from MTV Films was the best-reviewed movie opening this weekend, Paramount wasn’t expecting much because no Iraq war-themed movie has yet to perform at the box office.

“It’s not looking good,” a studio source told me before the weekend. “No one wants to see Iraq war movies. No matter what we put out there in terms of great cast or trailers, people were completely turned off. It’s a function of the marketplace not being ready to address this conflict in a dramatic way because the war itself is something that’s unresolved yet.

Source: Hollywood Daily

Translation:
People like feeling good about their country. We love our country and we want to see success. People want to be rallied and feel good. They don’t like being told everything is our fault and we should feel bad about ourselves.

When Hollywood begins making films people want to see instead of trying to force a political view on us, then people will want to see their films.

December 26th, 2007 by Scott

In a Washington Times article published today, Lawrence Kudlow hits some of the highlights of President Bush’s 2007 accomplishments. Kudlow is right on the mark in many areas. Allow me to expand with the Democratic/Republican “2007 predictions.”

After all, hindsight is 20/20.

The Economy

Democratic Prediction: 2007 Recession

The Huffington Post: Sep 10, 2007 - Strained by an ailing housing market and credit woes, the economy in 2007 is expected to log its worst growth in five years and should be somewhat sluggish next year. The No. 1 risk, though, is that the economy will lose its footing altogether and fall into a recession, forecasters say.

The New York Times: September 8, 2007 - Suddenly, analysts are talking about a possible recession. And that’s not good news for anybody. A few more months like August would make a recession likely.

ABC: Democrat Chris Dodd Predicts Recession: November 11, 2007 - Senate Banking Committee Chairman Senator Chris Dodd, D-Conn., predicted this morning that the country is headed into a recession. “Well, it’s certainly pointing in that direction. We hope that’s not the case, but there are many people who watch this minute to minute and would have drawn that conclusion. Some are even predicting a far greater likelihood than I would at this juncture,” Dodd said in a “This Week with George Stephanopoulos” interview.

Actual Outcome: 2007 Sees Record Economic Growth
(Source: Federal Fact Sheet: December 12, 2007)

• November 2007 Marks Record 51st Consecutive Month of Job Growth
• More Than 8.3 Million Jobs Created Since August 2003 In Longest Continuous Run Of Job Growth On Record
• 94,000 jobs created in November.
• GDP grew at 4.9 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2007 (six years of uninterrupted growth, averaging 2.8 percent a year since 2001)

Iraq Troop Surge

Democratic Prediction: Troop Surge Will Fail

Democrat Harry Reid, Senate Majority Leader (in The Huffington Post) December 19, 2006 - Frankly, I don’t believe that more troops is the answer for Iraq.

Arianna Huffington (in the Huffington Post) June 14, 2007 - The Democrats need to stick with Reid’s plan to ratchet up the pressure on the president — and especially on Congressional Republicans who will have to face the wrath of voters in 2008. It is the right thing to do — both on moral grounds and on political grounds.

Stephen Schlesinger April 19, 2007 - This, after several months of the so-called Bush “surge”, which was going to decisively change the direction of the war in Iraq. The surge is a disaster.

‘Surge’ Strategy Is Recipe For Disaster - John Nichols, CBS December 20, 2006 - The “surge” strategy is ridiculous on its face. Strategists in Washington should be developing a plan for U.S. troops to surge homeward, not pushing a scheme to send more young men and women into a hopeless —and deadly — quagmire.

Actual Outcome: Troop Surge Worked

The Washington Times: August 21, 2007 - Top Senate Democrats have started to acknowledge progress in Iraq, with the chairman of the Armed Services Committee yesterday saying the U.S. troop surge is producing “measurable results.”

Sen. Carl Levin of Michigan highlighted improved security in Baghdad and al Qaeda losses in Anbar province as examples of success — a shift for Democrats who have mainly discounted or ignored advances on the battlefield for weeks.

“The military aspects of President Bush’s new strategy in Iraq … appear to have produced some credible and positive results,” Mr. Levin said in a joint statement with Sen. John W. Warner, Virginia Republican, after a two-day visit last week to Iraq.

Facts from MIT: September 14, 2007 - … civilian fatalities have declined without any concurrent increase in casualties among coalition and Iraqi troops.

General Petraeus: Iraq troop surge is working (UK Telegraph) December 9, 2007 - America’s military commander in Iraq gave President George W Bush a major boost last night by telling the US Congress that his “surge” policy was working and troop levels should be reduced by 30,000 over the next 10 months.

Iraq says most of Al-Qaeda network destroyed in 2007 - The Iraqi interior ministry lauded its achievements over the past year on Saturday, saying that 75 percent of Al-Qaeda’s networks in the country had been destroyed in 12 months.
Ministry spokesman Abdul Karim Khalaf also outlined sharp falls in the numbers of assassinations, kidnappings and death squad murders. Breitbart, Dec. 29, 2007

What’s Ahead in 2008?
I even see the trends pointing to a better 2008. With Congress’ dismal approval ratings, I even predict that we’ll see a return to a Republican controlled House and Senate in November 2008 and continue to hold the White House.

I will continue to document why I feel the Republicans will win all three branches as I follow the course of the primaries and the election year events. But there is one underlying theme that you’ll see and you can see in the above analysis.

Democrats like to lower the bar and tell us how much things will go wrong. Republicans like to look forward and find ways to raise the bar.

After all, look at the predictions above. Even with a Democratic controlled House and Senate, the Democrats had to shout doom and gloom. “We’re going to have a recession! We’re losing in Iraq!”

Why? Because anything that is good for the country is bad for them. Success for the country means that the Bush Doctrine is working. It means the tax cuts worked. It means the troop surge worked.

Stay tuned!